????????�??�

????????�??�人民币新政仍有待“透明”

中国人民银行（即中国央行）行长周三透露了他们一个严格保守了多日的秘密，那就是在确定人民币汇率波动区间时用作参考的一篮子货币具体由哪些币种构成。

央行行长周小川周三在讲话中说，在据以管理人民币汇率的一篮子货币中，美元、欧元、日圆和韩圆等自然成为主要的篮子货币。他还说，与中国的年双边贸易规模超过100亿美元的国家其货币都有可能被纳入这个篮子，比如新加坡、英国、马来西亚、俄罗斯、澳大利亚和泰国、加拿大等国。

周小川的讲话对市场来说具有重大意义，它使最近的这次汇率改革中最不透明的一个环节得以露出端倪。虽然有关一篮子货币的细节很零散，但它还是让人们对组成这个货币篮子的原则有所了解。

分析师指出，在中国央行向外汇市场引入新的风险对冲产品的同时，周小川的此番讲话似乎也是在郑重承诺将加大人民币的灵活性，减少与美元的直接关联。

雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)驻东京经济学家Rob Subbaraman说：'这些对于我们都是非常重要的信号。'

上个月，中国在宣布人民币升值的同时取消了已实行10多年的人民币钉住美元的汇率制度，并表示将参考一篮子货币来管理人民币汇率，但当时央行没有透露一篮子货币的具体构成。

中国政府目前对一篮子货币的机制具体如何运作仍语焉不详。央行只表示将把其作为一个参考，这暗示中国在这个问题上将比同样实行参考一篮子货币制度的新加坡和以色列有更大的随意性和自由度。

不过，自从中国上个月宣布放弃钉住美元的制度后，推动中国外汇市场进一步发展的动作迅速展开。日前，央行宣布开放外汇远期和互换等衍生交易。

这些交易旨在保护企业免受外汇波动风险的冲击，不过，这些产品对中国市场而言尚属新生事物，有很大的监管难度。中国央行周三还宣布，保险公司、证券公司和其他非银行金融机构可以申请参与国内银行间外汇市场的交易。

实际上，自从上个月宣布人民币升值以来，为限制市场力量可能给汇率带来的冲击，央行一直在外汇市场上进行著干预。分析师指出，从贸易和投资资金流动的角度，人民币市场汇率还应进一步上升，但这段时间其日波幅从未出现过接近允许浮动的上限0.3%的情形。

除了直接的干预行动之外，央行还向银行系统注入大量资金，使人民币的市场利率明显走低。交易员说，央行此举旨在降低市场对人民币的需求，从而抑制汇率上升的苗头。周三，人民币兑美元收于1美元兑8.1062元，宣布升值之初的水平为是8.11元。

如果中国央行真地将人民币汇率的重心从美元转移出去，那将引起美国国债市场投资者的关注。因为中国有可能由此开始减少美元在其官方外汇储备中的权重。目前中国的外汇储备总额超过了7,000亿美元。

为中国大型商业银行管理美元头寸的交易员说，到目前，他们仍在增持美元，尚未对投资组合做调整。

尽管周小川表示，一篮子货币将由10多个币种组成，但他周三也明确指出，美元在中国贸易和投资方面的重要地位正逐渐下降。他还说：我们要鼓励这种趋势。

中国一些企业出现的变化也证实了这种趋势。以年出口额达2亿美元、为耐克和阿迪达斯等品牌生产运动服饰的上海针织集团(Shanghai Knitting Group)为例，过去，该集团的发票都以美元开具，但该集团副总经理陆龙生说，现在，客户不仅用美元，也有的选择欧元，特别是欧洲国家的客户。

香港时间2005年08月11日10:28更新

???????3429??? ?????????_????_????_???

???????3429??? ?????????_????_????_???美贸易赤字半年3429亿美元 对华逆差达历史高点
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http://finance.sina.com.cn 2005年08月15日 04:59 第一财经日报

　　本报记者 林纯洁 发自上海

　　由于油价持续高涨以及对中国的逆差达到历史高点，美国6月份贸易逆差达到588亿美元，高于彭博社预期的572亿美元。

　　根据美国商务部周五公布的数字，美国6月份贸易逆差较5月份上涨2.8%，至588亿美元，为历史第三高位,5月份经过修正以后的数字为572亿美元。

　　至此，美国今年上半年贸易赤字已经达到了3429亿美元，较去年同期的2909亿美元上涨了17.88%，去年美国的贸易赤字曾经创下了6180美元的历史纪录。6月份美国进出口双双创下历史纪录，其中进口增加2.1%，至1657亿美元，但相对缓慢的出口导致逆差扩大，6月份出口仅增长0.1%。

　　国际原油价格在经过5月份的回调以后6月份再度上扬是导致美国贸易逆差扩大的重要因素，原油进口金额较5月份猛增9%至146亿美元，创历史新高，6月份原油价格平均上涨13%；而美国对中国的逆差也是达到了创纪录的176亿美元，占全部赤字的29.9%。

　　虽然赤字水平高于预期，但周五美元对主要货币保持稳定。根据彭博社的综合汇率报价，欧元兑美元在周五盘初触及近10周高点1.2486后走低，收盘报于1.2441,下跌0.24%。欧元兑美元已经连续6周走强，较7月5日触及的年内低点已经累计上涨了3.6%。

　　美元兑日元周五报109.38,下跌0.29%。虽然日本上周一的邮政私有化改革法案遭参议院否决，但强劲的经济增长预期依旧带动日元在近日走高近2.88%。日本政府上周五表示今年第二季度的GDP增长年度推算值为1.1%，为连续第三个季度增长，同时将第一季度的数字从4.9%修正为5.4%。国际货币基金组织也在上周将日本经济今年的增长率预估从4月份的0.8%上调至1.8%，更预测明年的增长率将达到1.9%。

??????????????:???????

??????????????:???????解读人民币汇率改革释放的信号：重大原则渐清晰

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2005年08月11日 18:50

　　我国自7月21日晚启动人民币汇率机制改革，这项重大举措的丰富内涵，吸引了全球人士的密切关注。近段时间内，中国人民银行逐步向外释放新信息，这次改革中所要把握的一些重大原则已日渐清晰。

　　“传递人民币汇率形成机制改革的信息，要充分考虑市场和公众的消化吸收能力。”周小川7月底曾表示：“为避免冲淡对改革关键内容的消化理解，这次改革的信号也有一个逐步释放的过程。”

　　简单汇总一下，人民银行已先后利用不同场合，近10次对外逐步披露汇率形成新机制改革的新内容。周小川也利用中央电视台“焦点访谈”栏目、人民银行大额支付系统建成仪式、人民银行学术研讨会、人民银行上海总部成立仪式等4次机会，阐述了一些汇率改革的重要信息。

　　“人民币汇率水平既可能向上浮动，也可能向下浮动，人民币汇率调整并非意味单边上扬”，这是人民银行较早明确的一条原则。

　　对人民币汇率对美元升值2%，一些人曾心存有人民币进一步升值的预期。人民银行7月26日声明，人民币汇率初始调整水平升值2%，并不是指人民币汇率第一步调整2%，事后还会有进一步的调整。

　　按照人民银行公告，美元对人民币的交易价在美元交易中间价上下3‰的浮动幅度，并不意味着人民币汇率今后总是单边向上变化的，而是可上可下的双向变动。人民银行在8月4日公布的第二季度中国货币政策执行报告中，再次表示将进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制，同时将根据市场发育状况和经济金融形势，适时调整汇率浮动区间。

　　“参考一篮子货币不是盯住一篮子货币”，虽然人民银行早已阐述了这一观点，不过并未透露一篮子货币的具体构成及相关权重。8月10日，周小川在上海首次披露了“一篮子货币”构成的参考原则。

　　“货币篮子的确定综合考虑我国对外贸易、外债、外商直接投资等外经贸活动中占较大比重的主要国家、地区的货币，并分别赋予其在篮子中的相应的权重。”周小川说：“美国、欧元区、日本、韩国等目前是我国最主要的贸易伙伴，相应地，美元、欧元、日元、韩元等也自然会成为主要的篮子货币。”

　　在这次改革之前，由于美国在世界经济中的特殊地位，以及对美贸易和以美元计价的贸易在我国对外贸易中占比较大，来自美国或以美元计价的外商投资比重较大。我国在较长的一段时间里实施人民币汇率盯住单一美元，以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率制度，这有利于形成一个比较稳定的贸易、金融环境。

　　近年来，随着世界经济格局的调整，中欧贸易、中国与亚洲区贸易不断上升，中美贸易占比相对下降，同时美元汇率的波动幅度也在加大，这也加大了人民币对其它主要货币的波动性，这不利于我国与其他国家和地区之间形成一个稳定的贸易、金融环境。

　　因此，周小川着重指出，与单一盯住美元的汇率制度相比，我国现在选择的人民币汇率新机制，可以更全面地反映人民币对主要货币的变化，有利于较好地应对美元不稳定所带来的影响。

　　在上述重大改革原则明确的同时，人们也注意到，央行近期密集出台汇率改革后的配套措施，大力推进外汇市场和相关产品的发展。人民银行在8月9日和10日相继宣布，决定扩大外汇指定银行远期结售汇业务和开办人民币与外币掉期业务，并采取三大改革措施推动银行间外汇市场发展。

　　后续配套措施能否及时跟上，对当前平稳度过改革调整期至关重要。人民银行称，通过扩大银行间外汇市场参与主体、增加市场交易品种和丰富市场交易模式，这是完善人民币汇率形成机制的重要举措。

　　时至今日，汇率改革的各项措施正平稳有序推进。在新的汇率机制下，企业、银行等市场参与主体，以及相关政府部门都需要调整各自的旧规则，适应改革后面临的全新形势。

　　(稿件来源：新华网，作者：张旭东)

????????8.10 ????????2.17%

????????8.10 ????????2.17%美元兑人民币跌破8.10 人民币升值幅度超2.17%

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2005年08月15日 11:38

　　中新网8月15日电 据《国际金融报》报道，上周五，由于人民币跟随日元强劲走势，银行间外汇市场美元兑人民币汇率延续前4日的跌势，跌至人民币升值以来新低8.0980。这是人民币汇率形成机制改革以来，美元兑人民币汇率首度跌破8.10大关。

　　与7月21日人民币汇改启动前美元兑人民币汇率8.2780相比，人民币升值幅度已达到2.1744%。

　　央行上周推出一系列汇率调整配套措施，包括允许更多的银行开展人民币远期结售汇业务，并允许符合资格的银行开展人民币与外币掉期业务；允许符合条件的非金融企业进入银行间即期外汇市场进行自营性交易。

　　另外，中国银监会也宣布将从9月1日起，允许境内设立向金融机构提供外汇、货币市场产品及衍生金融产品等交易的货币经纪公司，其中包括外资独资及中外合资的货币经纪公司。(记者张燕)

People's Daily Online -- Central bank specifies currency basket as reference of Renminbi exchange rate

People's Daily Online -- Central bank specifies currency basket as reference of Renminbi exchange rateCentral bank specifies currency basket as reference of Renminbi exchange rate



Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, said for the first time on Wednesday that the US dollars, Euro, Japanese Yen and won of the Republic of Korea constitute the basket of the currencies that will act as a reference for the Renminbi exchange rate.

Zhou made the remark when the central bank inaugurated its second headquarters in Shanghai, the country's financial hub.

Last month, China abruptly allowed its currency, the yuan, to appreciate by a modest 2 percent, announcing the Renminbi will no longer be pegged to a single currency, the US dollar, following the rate reform.

Instead, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, the mutual changes of major currencies in the world market will reduce the yuan's fluctuation.

"The countries and regions and their currencies that take a comparatively major position in China's foreign economic activities concerning foreign trade, foreign debt and foreign direct investment will be taken into account when the center bank adjusts the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan," he said.

"They will constitute the basket of the currencies and be weighted accordingly."

"The United States, European Union, Japan and the Republic of Korea are China's most important trade partners, so their currencies naturally become the main currencies in the basket," he said.

Singapore, Britain, Malaysia, Russia, Australia, Thailand and Canada also have important roles in China's foreign trade, so their currencies are important for the RMB exchange rate as well.

The RMB exchange rate, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies, better reflects the change of RMB value and China's foreign trade conditions in general, which will be of great importance for the basic balance of goods and service trade, he said.

Zhou did not reveal the detailed contents of the currency baskets, including the shares of each currency in deciding the yuan's value.

Some experts believe it is wise for the country not to publicize all the currencies in the basket as well as their shares, which will help the central bank better regulate and manage the exchange rate.

Countries with a larger trade volume with China have a correspondingly larger share in the basket.

The new RMB exchange rate regime, based on the reference to a basket of currencies will better cope with the negative impact brought by the unstable US dollar, and safeguard the stability of China's foreign trade environment, he said.

The new RMB exchange rate regime will discourage the speculative activities betting on RMB's further appreciation, said Li Yang, director of the Financial Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The Chinese yuan had been pegged to the US dollar at a stable rate of about 8.27 to 1 for years before the sudden appreciation last month.

With the devaluation of the US dollar in recent years, the RMB exchange rate against other major currencies was actually dropping, which some foreigners claimed was a measure by the Chinese government to stimulate its soaring exports.

Chinese leaders have said on several occasions that it is a complicated job to reform the exchange rate regime, and should be done gradually.

Source: Xinhua

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document

Financial Times (London, England)

August 4, 2005 Thursday
Asia Edition 1

SECTION: ASIA-PACIFIC; Pg. 2

LENGTH: 652 words

HEADLINE: Increasing costs and intense competition hit Chinese manufacturers harder than revaluation of renminbi: Industry is seeking ways to maintain profit margins without raising prices, writes Alexandra Harney

BYLINE: By ALEXANDRA HARNEY

BODY:


China's revaluation of the renminbi came as little surprise to Ken Chen. The president of Comix, a leading Chinese office supplies maker, had even written a clause into contracts with foreign customers allowing him to raise prices if the currency appreciated.

But Mr Chen did not count on the shrinking number of applications for jobs at his factory in Shantou, in southern China's Pearl River delta.

A local labour shortage since 2003 has forced Mr Chen to increase benefits for his employees, replacing fans with air conditioners in the dormitories and improving the quality of canteen food. Comix's labour costs have risen 10 per cent as a result.

"The increasing cost of labour is my number one concern," said Mr Chen.

The revaluation of the renminbi is taking a toll on Chinese manufacturers' profit margins, but not nearly as much as rising prices of raw materials and labour.

Beijing's hints about a likely currency move gave manufacturers plenty of time to prepare for an appreciation.

But the surge in prices of oil, steel, copper and other commodities, coupled with intense competition, has proved tougher.

How well Chinese manufacturers cope depends on their industry, market share and management ability. But interviews with several companies in the Pearl River delta, the export manufacturing hub north of Hong Kong, indicated that the revaluation was simply the latest in a series of challenges for factories in the workshop of the world.

Landbond is one of China's better-known furniture makers with a thriving export business. Executives say that, with more than 50,000 companies in China making furniture, competition has whittled the industry's profit margins down to single digits in recent years.

This decline in profitability is common in Chinese industry. A June report by UBS, the investment bank, showed that profit margins were falling in the electronics and machinery and equipment sectors as well.

The report predicted that in sectors with excess capacity, companies would not be able to lift prices sufficiently to offset higher input costs.

Compared with pressures such as these, the revaluation had little effect on Landbond's performance, according to Chen Tao, an executive at the company's headquarters in Foshan, a bustling industrial city in the western Pearl River delta.

Immediately after Beijing revalued, Landbond raised the prices in most of its contracts by 2 per cent, matching the appreciation.

"Everyone knows our profit margins are not high," said William Feng, who oversees the group's international strategy.

Chigo Air-Conditioning's margins are similarly thin. Costs of the air-conditioner maker's raw materials - including steel, plastic and copper - have risen an average 20 per cent over the past year.

Such an increase might be manageable in other industries but raw materials account for 96 per cent of the cost of a Chigo air-conditioner.

"Material costs are increasing, but we can't increase the price," said Li Xinghao, the president of Chigo.

"The competition is very fierce. If we increase the price, nobody will buy our products."

Some companies, including Chigo, said that continuing efforts to improve efficiency helped them to absorb the impact of the appreciation. Chigo has built a new factory where products move along the assembly line more smoothly, reducing costs.

Also, at any given time, about a third of Chigo's products are new models, Mr Li said. These products command higher prices and carry higher margins than older models.

Galanz, the world's leading microwave producer with a 40-45 per cent global market share, brought in executives from Toyota, the Japanese carmaker, to train its workers on efficient production techniques.

"The appreciation may have some impact but, with the structural changes inside the company, we can absorb its effects," said Zhao Weimin, marketing director. "Companies like us had already prepared a lot (for an appreciation)."

LOAD-DATE: August 3, 2005